Prediction markets
Prediction market P&L explained
Profit and loss works a little differently on prediction markets than on stocks or crypto. Here's how P&L, payouts, and realized vs unrealized gains work — and how to track them.
Last reviewed: June 14, 2026
What P&L means in prediction markets
In a prediction market, your P&L is the difference between what you paid for a position and what it's currently worth (or settled for). Because outcomes resolve to fixed values, your maximum gain and loss on each position are known up front.
Realized vs unrealized P&L
Realized P&L comes from positions you've closed or that have settled — it's locked in. Unrealized P&L is the paper gain or loss on positions you still hold, based on the current market price. Your total P&L is the sum of both.
How payouts work
Contracts resolve to a fixed value — typically $1 if your outcome is correct and $0 if it isn't. Your profit on a winning position is $1 minus your entry price per share; your loss on a losing position is your entry price. Selling before resolution locks in the current price difference instead.
How to track your P&L
Tracking P&L by hand across many markets is tedious. Connect Polymarket and Kalshi to Mantapex to calculate your realized and unrealized P&L automatically in one dashboard.
Track your prediction P&L