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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Economics
Polymarket Active·$6.6M vol·$133.8K liq·15 markets·5
5mo left·Dec 9, 2026
Fed RatesEconomic PolicyFedPoliticsTrumpJerome PowellFed Chair

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15
Upper bound target federal funds 3.75%
Upper bound target federal funds 3.75%
$522K vol
39% ▲6.1%
Upper bound target federal funds
Upper bound target federal funds
$1.4M vol
32% ▲0.1%
Upper bound target federal funds 4.25%
Upper bound target federal funds 4.25%
$418K vol
11% ▼3.5%
Upper bound target federal funds
Upper bound target federal funds
$197K vol
9% ▲0.1%
Upper bound target federal funds 3.25%
Upper bound target federal funds 3.25%
$56K vol
3% ▲0.2%
Upper bound target federal funds 3.75%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

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