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MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?
Q3 2026 through Q4 2033Economics
Kalshi Active 2 markets Mutually Exclusive·75¢ Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?·$0 Total Volume·-- Liquidity·-- OI
92mo·Apr 26, 2034

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Maximum peak-relative real GDP per capita for 2026 through 2033 below
$0 vol
75% ▲0.0%
Maximum peak-relative real GDP per capita for 2026 through 2033 least
$0 vol
25% ▲0.0%
Maximum peak-relative real GDP per capita for 2026 through 2033 below
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If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.

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