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Kalshi
Kalshi
Science

When will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved?

Yang–Mills before 2031
Y71¢/N30¢
Yang–Mills before 2030
Y70¢/N30¢
Yang–Mills before 2032
Y67¢/N33¢
+3 autres marchés
6 marchés
KXYANGMILLS
Kalshi
Science

When will P vs NP be resolved?

Before 2040
Y48¢/N53¢
Before 2035
Y39¢/N62¢
Before 2030
Y29¢/N71¢
+3 autres marchés
6 marchés
KXPNP
Kalshi
Science

When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?

Before 2032
Y67¢/N34¢
Before 2031
Y57¢/N43¢
Before 2030
Y51¢/N50¢
+3 autres marchés
6 marchés
KXHODGE
Kalshi
Science

When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?

Swinnerton-Dyer before 2032
Y68¢/N32¢
Swinnerton-Dyer before 2031
Y61¢/N39¢
Swinnerton-Dyer before 2030
Y54¢/N46¢
+3 autres marchés
6 marchés
KXBIRCHSWINN
Kalshi
Science

When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?

Any before 2028
Y70¢/N30¢
Any before Jul 2027
Y52¢/N48¢
Any before Oct 2026
Y50¢/N50¢
+3 autres marchés
6 marchés
KXAIMILLENNIUM
Kalshi
Science

Top Chinese AI Company week of October 26th

Top Chinese AI Company week of October 2…
Y98¢/N3¢
Top Chinese AI Company week of October 2…
Y3¢/N98¢
Top Chinese AI Company week of October 2…
Y3¢/N98¢
+7 autres marchés
10 marchés
KXCHINAAI
Kalshi
Science

Top Chinese AI Company week of November 2nd

Top Chinese AI Company week of November …
Y51¢/N49¢
Top Chinese AI Company week of November …
Y15¢/N85¢
Top Chinese AI Company week of November …
Y15¢/N86¢
+7 autres marchés
10 marchés
KXCHINAAI
Kalshi
Science

DeepSeek market share this week

DeepSeek market share this week?
Y50¢/N50¢
DeepSeek market share this week?
Y50¢/N50¢
DeepSeek market share this week?
Y50¢/N50¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXDEEPSHARE
Kalshi
Science

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 30, 2026 (Vercel)

Vercel Gateway across top labs above 11.3%
Y50¢/N50¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above 11.9%
Y50¢/N50¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above 12.4%
Y50¢/N50¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXDEEPVREQ
Kalshi
Science

Top Chinese AI Company week of October 19th

Top Chinese AI Company week of October 1…
Y50¢/N50¢
Top Chinese AI Company week of October 1…
Y50¢/N50¢
Top Chinese AI Company week of October 1…
Y50¢/N50¢
+7 autres marchés
10 marchés
KXCHINAAI
Kalshi
Science

Top Chinese AI company this month

Top Chinese AI company this month?
Y60¢/N41¢
Top Chinese AI company this month?
Y47¢/N53¢
Top Chinese AI company this month?
Y47¢/N53¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXCHINAAI
Kalshi
Science

Top coding AI this month (DeepSWE)

(DeepSWE)
Y48¢/N53¢
(DeepSWE)
Y48¢/N53¢
(DeepSWE)
Y48¢/N53¢
+5 autres marchés
8 marchés
KXCODEAI
Kalshi
Science

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Dec 2026
Y59¢/N41¢
Before Sep 2026
Y50¢/N50¢
Before Oct 2026
Y50¢/N50¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXGPT
Kalshi
Science

When will Anthropic release Claude 6?

(any family) before Dec 2027
Y92¢/N8¢
(any family) before Sep 2027
Y83¢/N18¢
(any family) before Jun 2027
Y70¢/N30¢
+2 autres marchés
5 marchés
KXCLAUDE
Kalshi
Science

Will Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?

Behind plague lab death before Nov
Y50¢/N50¢
1 marchés
KXIRKUTSKPATHOGEN
Kalshi
Science

Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?

More Oblast before November
Y50¢/N50¢
More Oblast before November
Y50¢/N50¢
More Oblast before November
Y50¢/N50¢
3 marchés
KXPLAGUECOUNT
Kalshi
Science

Next pandemic

Pandemic by Dec 31, 2029?
Y20¢/N81¢
Pandemic by Dec 31, 2028?
Y17¢/N83¢
Pandemic by Dec 31, 2027?
Y11¢/N90¢
3 marchés
KXNEWOUTBREAK-P
Kalshi
Science

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Confirmed human United States before November 2026
Y50¢/N50¢
Confirmed human United States before January 2027
Y6¢/N95¢
Confirmed human United States before December 2026
Y4¢/N97¢
3 marchés
KXPNEUMONICPLAGUE
Kalshi
Science

Anthropic share of requests on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)

Vercel Gateway across top labs above
Y71¢/N29¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above
Y55¢/N45¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above
Y51¢/N50¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXANTHVREQ
Kalshi
Science

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)

Vercel Gateway across top labs above 10.1%
Y50¢/N50¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above 11.2%
Y50¢/N50¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above 11.6%
Y50¢/N50¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXDEEPVREQ
Kalshi
Science

Anthropic share of spend on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)

Vercel Gateway across top labs above 29.0%
Y78¢/N22¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above 29.5%
Y69¢/N31¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above 31.4%
Y57¢/N43¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXANTHVSPEND
Kalshi
Science

Google share of requests on Oct 30, 2026 (Vercel)

Vercel Gateway across top labs above 10.1%
Y50¢/N50¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above 10.8%
Y50¢/N50¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above 11.1%
Y50¢/N50¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXGOOGVREQ
Kalshi
Science

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

For 2026 (Sep 28–Oct above 450T tokens
Y50¢/N50¢
For 2026 (Sep 28–Oct above 500T tokens
Y50¢/N50¢
For 2026 (Sep 28–Oct above 550T tokens
Y50¢/N50¢
+9 autres marchés
12 marchés
KXTOKENUSEM
Kalshi
Science

Google share of spend on Oct 30, 2026 (Vercel)

Vercel Gateway across top labs above
Y50¢/N50¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above
Y50¢/N50¢
Vercel Gateway across top labs above
Y50¢/N50¢
+6 autres marchés
9 marchés
KXGOOGVSPEND
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