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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom nominationGavin Newsom nomination
25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez nominationAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez nomination
9%
Jon Ossoff nominationJon Ossoff nomination
9%
+125 de plus
World ElectionsGlobal ElectionsElections +5
$1.2B128 marchés 770
Nov 7, 2028
PM LIVE
World
Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Marco RubioMarco Rubio
16%
VanceVance
15%
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom
14%
+125 de plus
World ElectionsGlobal ElectionsUS Election +6
$628.7M128 marchés 962
Nov 7, 2028
PM LIVE
World
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

December 2026December 2026
98%
August 2026August 2026
98%
October 2026October 2026
98%
+14 de plus
IranTrumpceasefire +7
$344.8M17 marchés 9058
Apr 22, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
74%
Netanyahu out by June 30?Netanyahu out by June 30?
1%
Netanyahu out by March 31?Netanyahu out by March 31?
0%
+2 de plus
WorldGeopoliticsMiddle East +3
$122.5M5 marchés 34
Mar 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula Silva 2026 BrazilianLuiz Inácio Lula Silva 2026 Brazilian
52%
Flávio Bolsonaro 2026 BrazilianFlávio Bolsonaro 2026 Brazilian
26%
Renan Santos 2026 BrazilianRenan Santos 2026 Brazilian
13%
+29 de plus
BrazilGlobal ElectionsWorld Elections +4
$100.2M32 marchés 11578
Oct 4, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

1%chance
Yes 1¢
No 99¢
IranIsraelMiddle East +6
$57.0M 3
Jun 30, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

AugustAugust
6%
JulyJuly
2%
JuneJune
1%
+5 de plus
KhameneiIran RegimeKharg Island +6
$55.3M8 marchés 454
Mar 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

13%chance
Yes 13¢
No 88¢
GeopoliticsPoliticsMiddle East +5
$37.7M 3
Dec 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

DecemberDecember
14%
JulyJuly
4%
JuneJune
1%
+3 de plus
TrumpIranU.S. x Iran +4
$26.8M6 marchés 204
Apr 30, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

DecemberDecember
9%
JuneJune
1%
FebruaryFebruary
0%
+4 de plus
IsraelWorldIran +5
$21.0M7 marchés 420
Mar 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

10%chance
Yes 10¢
No 91¢
IsraelIranTrump +7
$20.3M 6
Dec 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Iran leader end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei head stateMojtaba Khamenei head state
84%
Reza Pahlavi head stateReza Pahlavi head state
5%
There Head StateThere Head State
2%
+120 de plus
Middle EastIranWorld +4
$15.5M123 marchés 121
Dec 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 2026December 2026
28%
July 2026July 2026
7%
June 2026June 2026
4%
+2 de plus
GeopoliticsTrumpMiddle East +6
$15.4M5 marchés 193
Apr 30, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

December 2026December 2026
7%
December 2025December 2025
0%
March 2026March 2026
0%
+1 de plus
GeopoliticsTrump PresidencyWorld +2
$14.2M4 marchés 1178
Dec 31, 2025
PM LIVE
World
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

6%chance
Yes 6¢
No 94¢
IranshahGeopolitics +3
$11.4M 49
Dec 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

0%chance
Yes 0¢
No 100¢
WorldChinaGeopolitics +1
$11.2M
Jun 30, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

7%chance
Yes 7¢
No 93¢
GeopoliticsWorldworld affairs +3
$10.3M 707
Dec 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

JuneJune
5%
SeptemberSeptember
0%
DecemberDecember
0%
+4 de plus
GeopoliticsWorldSyria +4
$8.5M7 marchés 122
Sep 30, 2025
PM LIVE
World
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

July 2026July 2026
28%
June 2026June 2026
22%
April 2026April 2026
0%
+3 de plus
GeopoliticsLebanonIran Ceasefire +5
$8.5M6 marchés 74
Apr 30, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

9%chance
Yes 9¢
No 92¢
putinGeopoliticsUkraine +4
$7.7M 1
Dec 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

December 2026December 2026
6%
March 2026March 2026
0%
April 2026April 2026
0%
Trump PresidencyUS-IranIran +5
$7.6M3 marchés
Mar 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
US military action against Cuba by...?

US military action against Cuba by...?

US strike on Cuba by December 31?US strike on Cuba by December 31?
44%
US strike on Cuba by March 31?US strike on Cuba by March 31?
0%
US strike on Cuba by January 31?US strike on Cuba by January 31?
0%
GeopoliticsVenezuelaCuba
$6.1M3 marchés 83
Dec 31, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

El-Mandeb SeptemberEl-Mandeb September
14%
El-Mandeb JuneEl-Mandeb June
3%
El-Mandeb JuneEl-Mandeb June
1%
+4 de plus
houthitrafficOil +9
$4.8M7 marchés 140
Apr 30, 2026
PM LIVE
World
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

July 2026July 2026
42%
June 2026June 2026
27%
June 2026June 2026
11%
+2 de plus
GeopoliticsIranIsrael +5
$4.7M5 marchés 194
May 31, 2026
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