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Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
Before Jan 1, 2027Politics
Kalshi Aktiv 8 Märkte·37¢ Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?·$0 Gesamtvolumen·-- Liquidität·-- OI
3mo·Jan 8, 2027

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8
Reported any Source Agencies United States and Mexico reach, outcome review negotiations, written interim framework agreement establishing least one material new revised commitment concerning operation, implementation, revision where agreement not limited withdrawing, suspending, avoiding unilateral tariffs retaliatory measures before Jan 2027
$0 vol
37% ▲0.0%
Reported any Source Agencies United States and Canada reach, outcome review negotiations, written interim framework agreement establishing least one material new revised commitment concerning operation, implementation, revision where agreement not limited withdrawing, suspending, avoiding unilateral tariffs retaliatory measures before Jan 2027
$0 vol
31% ▲0.0%
Reported any Source Agencies United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, outcome review negotiations, agreement principle establishing least one material new revised commitment concerning operation, implementation, revision while preserving trilateral agreement, where agreement not limited withdrawing, suspending, avoiding unilateral tariffs retaliatory measures before Jan 2027
$0 vol
27% ▲0.0%
Reported any Source Agencies United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice withdrawal from under Article 34.6 before Jan 2027
$0 vol
17% ▲0.0%
Reported any Source Agencies amendment enters into force under Article 34.3 before Jan 2027
$0 vol
16% ▲0.0%
Reported any Source Agencies United States and Mexico reach, outcome review negotiations, written interim framework agreement establishing least one material new revised commitment concerning operation, implementation, revision where agreement not limited withdrawing, suspending, avoiding unilateral tariffs retaliatory measures before Jan 2027
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If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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